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Today we're going to look at two hands, there wasn't much action in either, but I think both could have been troublesome had I over-played them.
The first was fairly straightforward, but it's such a common situation, that it's well worth hearing what the pros think. A little later in the tournament, I had 7500 chips, blinds were 60-120 when I picked up As Ah 7d 2d UTG. I open-limped, there was no raise, and six players took the flop Jc 3d 2c. I check-folded my hand.
Andy: My plan with weak aces UTG and 60BB was to limp, call a single raise and get it in if there was a double raise (which was probably unlikely).
I think the hand is too weak to open-raise in this position, and the limp/re-raise doesn't get enough chips in the pot. If I give my hand away as AAxx, I want to get at least 30% of my chips in the pot so I can basically commit on any flop. Does this plan sound OK?
Marty: Yeah, with bad Aces like that, I'd probably want to get close to 50% in pre-flop or else play them very cautiously indeed. [On the flop I check-folded my hand] - yep.
Dave: Yeah, unconnected weak aces are nothing to get excited about and are how a lot of beginners (and "pros") lose all their chips. When it's six way and you're UTG if you don't hit your set just get out basically.
Andy: Glad to see that the pros agree with me on this one. Aces in Omaha are not the same as Aces in Hold'Em!
Later still in the tournament, playing 200-400, I was in the big blind with a 10k stack and there was no small blind. The button open-raised to 1200 (out of a 40K stack) and I found myself holding Qc Ts Td 8s. After some deliberation, I folded.
I just don't like any of my options here. Calling out of position gives me only eight pair cards to hit (instead of 12). It's too much of my stack to call just to hit a ten, I think, partly because in Omaha a set is not a lock to win the hand!
If I re-raise and we get it in I'm either flipping or well behind a bigger pair. Moreover, if I re-raise I think he'll at least call and now I've got a third of my stack in. If I had QJT8 I'd be happy to re-raise or call, but I can't find a way to play the hand so I fold. If you didn't fold, how would you play the hand?
Marty: I think you're right to pass but truthfully, I'd probably call sometimes because I get carried away with cards that are remotely close together. Everything you said makes sense though, so in future I'm gonna try to remember to pass in this sort of situation.
Dave: Definitely not a re-raising spot. I think folding and calling are both fine. It's alright to see a flop and re-evaluate sometimes without having a predetermined plan and he's probably raising any four on the button in this spot. Folding is fine though.
Andy: I felt like a complete nit folding this hand so I'm happy to see that the pros see some merit in passing! On balance, I think this is a hand that an experienced player would be able to play for a small profit, but for a n00b like myself, I can pass here without worrying that I'll be blinded to death - I should find plenty of good spots where I can get my chips in before too long.
Comments (5)
this hand is interesting because all the options are very close. Preflop, the hand is 5 to 1 against the top 10% of hands, and 3 to 1 against the top 20%. It has 1 to 1 odds against the top 30% of hands however, and is a slight favorite against worse.
Seeing as he is the big stack, we do not have to give him credit for a massive hand just now, especially as he is raising from the button. I favour a raise here over a call as we are putting pressure on our opponents and, if he has raised with a hand in the bottom 70% of hands and folds it, we are picking up 2000 chips where in the long run we would only win 800-1000. I think a fold is the wrong option as it costs us 800 to win 1800, and with better than 2 to 1 odds he would need a big hand to have us calling with the wrong odds which, as I said, we should not immediately credit him with.
Raising puts you in control of the action, and if you get a call which is entirely likely around three quarters of the time, because three bets in omaha usually are aces etc etc, you still get to heap the pressure onto speculative hands who make the call preflop. If you are 4bet, you have about 35% equity against Aces or Kings.
Onto the flop, and the decision here is even closer. However, you being first to act is in fact an advantage here. Knowing that your opponent only flatted your 3bet pre and didnt commit you gives you an opportunity to represent big with a bet on the flop. If your opponent did not hit the flop hard enough and elects to fold, somewhere between 55-60% of the time, so as to only risk 3500 of his stack and not 10k against someone who has shown strength at every stage, your flop shove picks up 4300 which in the long term translates to around 2500 every time you do this. Now, this is where speculation comes into play. Yes there are times when you flop a set and he has 2 pair and calls you etc, but I am going to forget about these instances to prove a point. You have great equity in these scenarios and in the long run you will win chips if called in these spots. However, usually you will miss or connect slightly i.e gutshot etc, and so if your shove is called, you are going to be a massive underdog, and punching a few scenarios into the calculator leaves me seeing that on average, you will have about a 25% chance of winning the hand. so:
25% you win pot when called = 10200 x 25% = 2550
75% you lose pot when called = -9400 x 75% = -7050
so in the long term you have an EV of -4500 when called. This however, only happens less than half the time, while the other scenario is you pick up around 2500 from him folding your flop shove. Therefore,
60% he folds = 4300 x 60% = 2480
40% he calls = -4500 x 40% = -1800
so if we believe that less than 40% of the hands he calls with connect with the board enough to warrant a call, in the situation where a guy has moved all in on the board having reraised pre, we can see that shoving the flop has a positive EV, which is why I suggested a stop and go in my first post. It is close though, and in these situations I tend to play aggressively, and do not forget the equity you gain when you flop big - the above is the equity you have when you miss.
I would appreciate your feedback on this also Marty, I appreciate your previous thoughts